Community growth tools that show their work.
Model membership economics, stress-test paid acquisition, and diagnose offer value without hidden “industry averages.” Every output is arithmetic from inputs you can see and replace.
Dream outcome
What changes?
Likelihood
Why believe it?
Time delay
When is first value?
Effort
What friction remains?
The output points to a question. Your evidence decides the answer.
Arithmetic, not a forecast
Membership revenue model
Size the recurring-revenue target and member gap using your own price, active-member count, and observed churn. No market benchmark is inserted behind the result.
Gross recurring price per active member, before fees, refunds, tax, or delivery cost.
The active member count you are planning toward.
Use billed, active members—not free members or expired trials.
Use your own cohort or billing data. If it is unknown, treat the replacement number as an assumption.
Target gross MRR
$19,400
Target members multiplied by monthly price.
Gross MRR gap
$15,520
Target MRR minus current MRR; not profit or cash collected.
Member gap
160
Additional active members needed before accounting for churn.
Monthly replacements
10
Members required just to offset the churn assumption at target size.
Transparent unit economics
Paid acquisition assumption model
Stress-test a funnel with inputs from your own ad account and CRM. The tool exposes every assumption and does not label the output as an AdvLaunch benchmark or expected result.
Planned media spend only; agency, creative, and platform fees are excluded.
Use a comparable campaign and the same lead definition you use in your CRM.
Paid members divided by leads for a comparable cohort—not landing-page conversion rate.
Gross recurring price per active paid member.
Prefer observed retention. This is the most sensitive assumption in the gross revenue calculation.
Modelled leads
200
Spend divided by your cost-per-lead assumption.
Modelled paid members
8.0
Leads multiplied by your lead-to-paid assumption.
Modelled CAC
$375
Media spend per modelled paid member; excludes overhead.
First-month gross revenue
$776
Paid members multiplied by monthly price; not collected cash or profit.
Gross revenue per member
$582
Price multiplied by expected retention; ignores churn shape, refunds, and costs.
Gross revenue : CAC
1.55×
3.9 months of gross membership revenue to recover modelled media CAC.
Named framework · explicit limit
Four-Variable Membership Audit
Score the four value-equation variables on the same 1–10 scale. The output is a relative diagnostic for deciding what to inspect first—not a revenue, conversion, retention, or ranking forecast.
How specific and desirable is the result? A higher score is better.
How credible is the path and its proof? A higher score is better.
How long until the member reaches a meaningful first win? A lower score is better.
How much friction must the member absorb? A lower score is better.
Relative diagnostic
1.00
Formula: (dream outcome × perceived likelihood) ÷ (time delay × effort and sacrifice).
Inspect first
Perceived likelihood
This flag identifies the largest directional weakness on the four entered scores. Validate it with interviews, onboarding behaviour, cohort retention, and offer data before changing the product.
Read the method, evidence, and limitsMethodology
Useful models separate arithmetic from evidence.
The old version of this page embedded unverified conversion constants and described them as medians. These tools now use only visible, user-controlled assumptions. They deliberately do not predict ranking, revenue, retention, or campaign performance.
Inputs are explicit
Every variable that changes the output is visible beside the model.
Formulas are reproducible
Results use ordinary arithmetic stated in the interface, not a proprietary benchmark.
Limits stay attached
Gross revenue is not profit. A modelled member is not a booking, sale, or retained customer.
Decisions require evidence
Replace assumptions with matched ad-account, billing, cohort, and CRM evidence before scaling.
Source-checked guides
Keep the method beside the evidence.
These owners explain the assumptions, primary sources, decision rules, and limitations behind the models.
Offer diagnosis
Four-Variable Membership Audit
A source-checked method for choosing the first value variable to investigate, with an evidence matrix and explicit non-forecast limits.
Read the guideDelivery decision
Create a Membership Site
Compare delivery models and platform constraints before committing to custom code, an all-in-one platform, or a community-first stack.
Read the guidePlatform economics
Whop vs Skool Fees
A reproducible fee model using current official platform sources, with assumptions readers can replace rather than an unexplained verdict.
Read the guidePlatform decision
Whop vs Circle Pricing
A worked subscription comparison that corrects the false idea of a universal cost crossover and shows where the real trade-off sits.
Read the guide
Ready to fill your community?
30-minute strategy call. We review your community, your current acquisition, and whether the Flywheel is the right fit. No deck, no fluff.